Threat to Taiwan

     Taiwan is facing a much more urgent military threat from China and the tension has increased every day compared with the previous seven decades. Taiwan must take the necessary steps to ensure its own defenses from upgrading air and missile defenses. In the first five days of October alone, Beijing flew a total of 150 fighter jets, nuclear-capable bombers, anti-submarine aircraft, and control planes, into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone. 

     In August, Taiwan announced that it would spend $1.4 billion on new fighter jets, likely F-16s. In December 2020, Taiwan's military began constructed on a fleet of eight domestically produced submarines, the first expected to begin sea trials in 2025. This news reported that Taiwan is planning to increase its military resources to step up the national asymmetric warfare capabilities.

    At the beginning of this week, the President of Taiwan, Tsai Ing Wen interviewed by CNN, as Taiwan is located fewer than 200 kilometers away from China's southeastern coast. She is trying to do her best to protect 23 million people from losing their democratic values and freedom. She said that she became the first Taiwan President in decades to acknowledge the presence of US troops on the island for training purposes. However, the number of US military personnel numbers is still a mystery and she said that it is not expected as many as people thought. She also called on regional democratic partners, including Japan, South Korea, and Australia to help support the island. Otherwise, she still believed that if Taiwan came under attack from mainland China, the US and other regional democracies would come to its aid, given the long-term relationship with the US.

    During Xi's 2nd term in power since 2017, the military has grown larger and more advanced, with China's naval fleet overtaking that of the US in terms of size. China become more ambitious. And we are looking now to the end of Xi Jin Ping's 2nd term next summer, assuming that he is going to start a 3rd term. Beijing still holds dozens of submarines, surface ships, grounded-launched missiles, air force bombers, and strike aircraft. And now, China has the largest military budget in Asia. It ranks second in the world behind the US.

    From my point of view, without US intervention, Taiwan is impossible to fight against China. But the price of attacking Taiwan is higher than China can afford. I think the leader of China may be cautious about this situation and calculate the profound effect of the attacks. I guess they are primarily to use war to cover up the collapse of the real estate market and the recession that will come afterward.